Blu-ray vs. HD-DVD vs. the world

Blu-ray and HD-DVD are here, but does anybody care? By now, the two next-gen high-definition disc formats have a couple of hundred titles between them, and the early players for each format, namely the Toshiba units such as the HD-A1 and the HD-A2 and Microsoft's Xbox 360 add-on for HD-DVD, and the PlayStation 3 and a smattering of standalone players for Blu-ray, are in stores. But $500 and up--that is, way up--is a lot to pay for a movie player that may or may not be obsolete in a few years, thanks to the take-no-prisoners format war that both sides are pursuing. And although the PS3 might seem like a perfect solution--even if Blu-ray movies go away, you still have a great gaming device--early evidence indicates that PS3 owners could care less about Blu-ray movie playback. We do care about movie playback, so join us for a look at what CES 2007 will bring to home video.

Universal HD-DVD/Blu-ray player? Not likely. Unless something financially catastrophic happens to a major player in the format war in 2007 (read: Sony), we don't expect either side to budge. In other words, don't hold your breath for a player that can handle both Blu-ray and HD-DVD movies. We've been wrong before, of course (see below), but we've seen no indication of compromise this early in the war. And if a universal player is "announced" at the show, we'd be flabbergasted if it hit store shelves this year. Update 01-04-2007: Well, maybe we'll be flabbergasted after all.

HD-DVD: Toshiba has already released a pair of new HD-DVD players, the HD-A2 (available now) and the HD-XA2 (coming later in December, supposedly), so we don't expect the principal HD-DVD hardware maker to introduce any others at the show. The higher-end model, the HD-XA2, has an HDMI 1.3 output, making it the only source currently announced with such a connection, aside from the PlayStation 3. As for recorders, we do expect Toshiba to show a (hopefully smaller) U.S. version of the RD-A1 HD-DVD recorder released in Japan earlier this year. The price, if Toshiba reveals it, will be astronomical. We'll ask 'em at the press conference how exactly it's supposed to get high-def video from today's sources. Could HD recorders mean we'll finally have a use for those FireWire ports on HDTVs?

Blu-ray: Unlike Toshiba, no one in the Blu-ray camp has announced a player with HDMI 1.3. That's all going to change in early January 2007. We expect every single standalone Blu-ray device announced at the show to include HDMI 1.3, making the current crop of standalone BD players essentially obsolete. Although Sony will probably save its BD player announcement for its February line show, we expect the rest of the BD gang to display less expensive (in the vicinity of $400 to $800) players and maybe some incredibly expensive recorders--price and availability to be determined, of course.

HDMI 1.3: As we mentioned in the TV section, the latest iteration of the HDMI standard allows manufacturers to tout a whole slew of picture-quality enhancements--most of which require similarly enhanced content to be realized. Suffice to say that HDMI 1.3 will be everywhere at CES 2007, from next-gen disc players to upconverting DVD players, to A/V receivers, to televisions. The connector is also the only way to pass bitstreams of the highest-quality, lossless audio formats--Dolby True HD and DTS-HD: Master--that will become more common on Blu-ray and HD-DVD software in 2007.

Other converting DVD players: Many of today's disc players can scale DVD resolution (480p) to high-def (720p, 1080i, and/or 1080p), which can improve picture quality somewhat, depending on your display. Tomorrow's players will perhaps include other types of upconversion that are said to improve color, frame rates, or other aspects of picture quality.

More downloadable movies: iTunes and Xbox 360 Live, among other sources, offer movie downloads today, and we expect CES 2007 to bring at least a couple of more contenders into the downloadable movies arena. Perhaps we'll finally see a (non-Apple) secure set-top box that goes online and downloads movies for playback on any TV, similar to MovieBeam but Internet savvy.

All quiet on the DVR front: In 2006, all three of the HD DVR heavy-hitters--DirecTV, Dish Network, and TiVo--released brand-new, dual-tuner, high-definition DVRs, so we don't expect any major updates from them in 2007. It's possible that a DVR purveyor might add HDMI 1.3, but we really doubt it. Cable DVR bigwigs, such as Scientific Atlanta and Motorola, might announce new units, but as usual, your cable company will determine whether you can get one. We do expect the satellite providers to unveil new HD channels, and we wouldn't be surprised if a fiber-optic TV service, such as Verizon's Fios, made a major announcement.