This is traditionally the time of year for bold predictions, so here's mine: By the end of 2004, the desktop as we know it will be DOA. Everyone knows that notebooks are coming on strong. By 2007, portable PCs are expected to account for nearly half of all PC shipments in the United States and almost 40 percent worldwide, according to market researcher IDC. In terms of revenue, they already surpass desktops. But we're also starting to see a more radical change. In fact, the very name desktop is rapidly becoming obsolete as manufacturers begin to design PCs for the living room, kitchen, and other parts of the home.

All these PCs of the future borrow heavily from existing ideas; most are part all-in-one, such as the Apple iMac and Gateway Profile, and part convergence device, with integrated TV tuners, digital video recorders, and remote controls. Instead of the desktop, they're designed for the countertop or entertainment center, and they're increasingly labeled "lifestyle PCs."

Get a life
For the past few weeks, I've seen several new lifestyle PCs from big names, such as Gateway (the 610 series Media Center) and Sony (the VAIO PCV-W510G and VAIO V100G), and small names, such as Afina (the AS7180 AV) and Pacco (the Ix My CIU). The Gateway 610 is the only one that runs Microsoft's Windows XP Media Center Edition operating system, but all have a similar design and features.

What separates these systems from the iMacs of the world is their TV features.

The primary ingredient in any lifestyle PC is an integrated flat-panel display. The Afina and Pacco models have smallish 12-inch displays with the standard 4:3 aspect ratio found on most desktop and notebook LCDs, but I prefer the wide-screen displays on the Gateway unit and the Sony PCV-W510G. Sony's extrabright 17.5-inch wide-screen display is especially tough to resist.

Yet even this display is large enough only for viewing TV in a small room such as a kitchen--one of the biggest limitations of these lifestyle PCs. Larger LCD panels remain far too costly, though if money's no object, there's always the Gateway 610 paired with the 42-inch plasma display or the exotic Hy-Tek Tek Panel 370, an $8,000 system built into the back of a 37-inch wide-screen LCD manufactured by Sharp. For the rest of us, the alternative is to attach the PC to a TV set using the S-Video or composite connectors--something a surprising number of Media Center users do, according to Microsoft.

What separates these systems from the iMacs of the world is their TV features. All have integrated tuners for viewing standard television (but not HDTV), a remote control, and a digital video recorder (DVR). You can use them to do virtually all of the same things you can with a standalone TiVo or ReplayTV: pause, fast-forward, and rewind live television, as well as automatically record shows. And you can burn recorded programs (or any audio, video, or data files) onto DVDs. Beware of models such as Afina's and Sony's that lack infrared blasters to change channels on digital cable and satellite set-top boxes; without this, the DVR features are virtually useless. (The Pacco system doesn't have DVR features at all.)

Of the models I've tried, the Gateway 610 is the best.

Of the models I've tried, the Gateway 610 is the best because both the hardware and software were designed from scratch for a lifestyle PC. Everything is integrated, including the three-piece speakers. The keyboard and mouse are wireless, too, making the design simple and uncluttered. And the Media Center OS incorporates all the multimedia features--TV and digital video, DVR, digital audio, and digital photos--into one consistent interface you can control from the couch.

The Sony models, as usual, have the slickest hardware design, especially the PCV-W510G, with its keyboard that folds up to save counter space without covering that gorgeous display. But Sony's everything-but-the-kitchen-sink approach to software makes for a disjointed and confusing user experience. The Afina model is underpowered, and its display is far too small, while Pacco's is simply ill-conceived from start to finish.

Alternative-lifestyle PCs
Increasingly popular alternatives to all-in-ones are desktop-replacement notebooks, sometimes referred to as "desknotes." Models from Apple, Dell, Hewlett-Packard, Sony, Toshiba, and others offer wide-screen displays as large as 17 inches, powerful processors and graphics, and optional stands and wireless keyboards that effectively transform them into lifestyle PCs. The HP Pavilion zd7000 series, Sony's VAIO GRT-240G, and Toshiba's Satellite P25-S609 are also available with TV/DVR hardware and software.

Rumors have been swirling that the Media Center could go the way of Gateway's Destination PC/TV. But at the recent Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas, Microsoft unveiled several devices that will push the Media Center experience onto TV sets, the Xbox game console, and even portable video players this year, suggesting the company is in it for the long haul. For now, these lifestyle PCs will remain niche products, but I wouldn't hesitate to recommend one of the better models--even without Microsoft's Media Center software--for tech-savvy users who want a convergence device for a kitchen, dorm room, or other close quarters. Their time has finally arrived, and before long, we will think of the top of our desks as just one of many places where PCs are making themselves right at home.