CPU road map: 2008 and beyond

H2 2008

Say hello to Nehalem

Where Penryn was Intel's move to increased power efficiency, Nehalem, set to debut in the latter half of 2008, will introduce a brand-new CPU architecture. This pattern of shrinking the die one year, then revamping the core architecture the next is how Intel chip development will proceed, at least under its currently stated release plan. For example, 2009 will feature supposedly more power-efficient, 32nm process Nehalem-equivalent chips (code-named Westmere), while 2010 will feature a new chip architecture design, code-named Sandy Bridge (formerly Gesher), and so on.

Intel's 'tick-tock' cadence model

Intel has settled on an alternating schedule of shrinking the size of its chips with one release ("tick") while revamping the chips' architecture with the next release ("tock"). A tick-tock cycle will occur every two years.

Tick: Shrink of previous microarchitecture Tock: New architecture	65nm 65nm	Core Duo Core 2 Duo	2005/2006
Tick: Shrink of previous microarchitecture Tock: New architecture	45nm 45nm	Penryn Nehalem	2007/2008
Tick: Shrink of previous microarchitecture Tock: New architecture	32nm 32nm	Westmere Sandy Bridge (formerly Gesher)	2009/2010

For Nehalem, the big innovation will involve Intel linking the CPU to other components on the board via a new technology now branded QuickPath Interconnect (formerly Common System Interface), a next-generation interconnect technology designed to compete with AMD's HyperTransport. Although AMD's 65nm Phenom has not fared as well against Intel's new 45nm Core 2 Duo chips, when the two were on the same die size during the old Athlon/Pentium D days, AMD's built-in memory controller design was a significant factor in the Athlon's speed advantage. By introducing a similar design with Nehalem, Intel may further distance itself from AMD with its faster 45-nanometer designs.

AMD's projections for the latter half of the year include the very important move to the 45 nanometer manufacturing process. We have a feeling we'll see at least a 45-nanometer Opteron before the end of 2008, if not a full-fledged 45nm, HyperTransport 3.0-based Phenom desktop chip. We were also supposed to have AMD's new Socket AM3 motherboard chipsets by the beginning of 2008. This new circuitry will let AMD-based PCs use DDR3 memory, among other features. We've seen projections saying AM3 will be out by the end of this year, and others placing it in 2009. Moving to DDR3 isn't quite urgent enough yet for us to start feeling impatient, but by the end of this year it will likely be a requirement of any serious PC enthusiast. Hopefully AMD will have some concrete info on its next-generation motherboard chipsets, if not a full-fledged product launch, by the end of this year.

On the mobile side, AMD is thought to be taking a deep breath before diving into a new platform launch in 2009.