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Next week the annual Cellular Telecommunications Industry Association show begins. This will be my fifth time at the event, which is the largest cell phone trade show in the United States. The fun takes place in Las Vegas starting April 1. Though CTIA always has produced enough news to keep me busy, and it never fails to be interesting on some level, I wonder if it will always be that way.
A necessary evil
Trade shows have always struck me as a necessary evil. They're necessary in that they get the entire industry together to exchange ideas, get excited about new products, and drum up new business. However, the overinflated hype that so often surrounds the show is a little evil. Is it necessary for a company such as Samsung to spend several thousand dollars on an extravagant booth, blowout parties, and scores of plane tickets and hotels rooms just so an army of employees can attend the event and stand around a booth all day?
In a way, I suppose it is necessary. If a company such as Motorola unveils a cool new product at a trade show, as it did at CES in January, people like me heap on the praise. However, if the same company barely makes an effort at a show, as Motorola did at the 2008 GSMA World Congress, then the tech media complains about it. I know, we're hard to please, but that's the nature of trade shows. While they can be a venue for a manufacturer to maximize media coverage and show up their competition at the same time, they also can put an unneeded spotlight on a floundering company.
An April Fools' show?
Though I hope that CTIA will offer a lot of shiny new gadgets, I approach it with a bit if trepidation this year. In my experience of attending the event since 2004, each CTIA has seemed just a bit less boisterous than the show before it. While working in the press room at CTIA 2007, I discussed this trend with one of my media colleagues. He theorized that CTIA is just at the wrong time of year. He argued that since it follows both the gargantuan CES and the globally focused GSMA, CTIA ends up eclipsed by what came before it. Also, by the time it rolls around, manufacturers are suffering from trade show fatigue.
As a remedy, he advocated switching the schedule of the two CTIA shows so that the bigger event comes in the autumn, while the smaller, IT-focused show would occur in the spring. Not only would such a schedule put a few months in between CTIA and GSMA, but also it would put the larger show smack in the middle of the holiday buying season. It's an interesting theory, but I think there's a lot more going on here than just timing.
Most importantly, we have to consider the peculiar nature of the U.S. cell phone market. Since the United States often gets second-banana treatment from many of the big handset manufacturers, they're not going to pour a huge amount of resources into a U.S.-focused show. So unless that model changes, CTIA won't offer the variety of new handset that we'd see at an Asian or European show.
Also, it doesn't help that a company such as Apple can't be bothered to show up. While the company's absence doesn't make CTIA irrelevant, I do think the industry would be better served by having one of its up-and-coming players attend.
On their own terms
One of the industry's leading media outlets also is predicting a quiet show. RCR Wireless News cited a couple of trends to support its theory, such as the slowing U.S. economy and reduced forecasts from some handset manufacturers, and it quoted a few pessimistic industry analysts.
Are trade shows losing their relevance? Talk back to me below.
No, analysts don't know everything, but their reasoning is sound. Besides the aforementioned issues, RCR Wireless News suggested that the need to remain competitive could also be an issue. Manufacturers are increasingly worried that they may get negative media attention for missing a launch window on a high-profile device, which makes them reluctant to launch a product too far in advance. Though it's a rule of trade shows that many of the new products introduced never make it to market (hello, Kyocera), perhaps that reality is becoming less accepted. Another analyst said that manufacturers fear that announcing a product too early may reveal too much to their competition.
For all of these reasons, we may see manufacturers start to stick to their own schedules and announce big-ticket products in the summer, shortly before the holiday buying season. Not only would that make it easier to stand out from the crowd, but you can also make sure your product is really ready before you unveil it to the world. Just consider two of the most hyped cell phones of the last few years. As is its usual custom, Apple skipped CES and instead unveiled iPhone at its own Macworld event. Also, Motorola announced its infamous Razr in the summer of 2004, well outside of the usual trade show schedule.
Less than a week away from the show, rumors are circulating thorough the blogosphere on exactly what CTIA will bring. Nokia, Samsung, Sony Ericsson, and Motorola should introduce new devices and a new player called Velocity is set to enter the smartphone market. But what else will happen? We'll have to wait and see.
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