Six tech predictions for '06

January and February--and winter in general--aren't usually big months for new tech releases. They're what I call the in-between months--the CES announcements are in the books, many products and product lines are edging toward their phasing-out-of-the-channel phase, and readers with post-holiday buying itches are just starting to ask what's on the horizon. Sure, there's plenty of info already out there, but a lot of it is pretty vague, and many companies--Apple, Nintendo, and Onkyo, to name three--choose to keep quiet and not make any announcements at CES. With that in mind, I thought I'd do a little crystal-ball gazing and come up with six tech predictions for '06. And if you think mine sound shortsighted, incomplete, or downright moronic, feel free to add your own in the TalkBack section.

1. Apple will release a real video iPod by May
As many have observed, the iPod with video really isn't a video iPod; it's an audio iPod that can handle video. While the new Creative Zen Vision:M has a nicer screen than the that of the 5G iPod, Apple will offer a "vPod" that boasts a 25 percent bigger screen and offers true wide-screen viewing, improved battery life, and similar overall dimensions to the original iPod. That's what I'm holding out for anyway.

2. PS3 barely makes the holidays
Though Sony certainly won't want to replicate the raincheck-prone launch of the Xbox 360, word is that the company will have a hard time making good on its word for a spring launch for the PlayStation 3, even in Japan. If that date slips, expect to see, as Yogi Berra would say, déjà vu all over again come holiday time, with no shortage of shortages. I asked two sales guys at my local GameStop whether they thought Sony would repeat Microsoft's gaffe. One said no way--and pointed to the launch of the PSP, which went fairly smoothly, as evidence. The other said absolutely there would be shortages. The problem, he said, is that demand for the PS3 at launch would be much greater in Japan than what the Xbox 360 has experienced and that Sony will have to deal with that market first. I agree.

3. Forty-two-inch high-resolution plasmas hit $1,000 by Thanksgiving
They may not be made by Panasonic or Pioneer, but Norcent, Maxent, or Vizio will offer up a 42-inch HD plasma for a grand (and by HD, we mean the 1,024x768 resolution, which is greater than EDTV but not quite true HD) just in time for the holidays. And while I'm predicting price drops, watch for 50-inch plasmas to hit $2,000 along with 42-inch LCD TVs.

4. No PSP 2 until '07
Everybody's predicting that the PSP will come in a version that has a built-in hard drive. The only reason that Sony would do this is to compete with Apple's dash into the video-download business. Or to rephrase, Sony has to compete with Apple in the portable-video market, and the PSP is the vehicle with which it will compete--that, and its overhauled Connect music and video service. Unfortunately, we'll be looking at storing that music and video on flash memory (Memory Stick Duo) in '06. Fortunately, prices for a 2GB card will by less than $75 by fall--but that's still going to sting, when a 50GB iPod costs only $300.

5. HD-DVD and Blu-ray battle to 0-0 draw
There may be a market for next-generation high-def DVD successors--just not in 2006, especially with no one sure which pony to bet on. Toshiba's HD-DVD players are coming out first, priced around $500, in March. Blu-ray decks will follow later in the spring, with players starting out at a bit less than $1,000. Expect prices to fall to more enticing levels ($300 to $400 for HD-DVD, $500 to $700 for Blu-ray) by the holiday season. Even so, the real winner may ultimately be determined by rental companies such as Netflix that end up gaining customers who prefer to dabble before committing to either side. I'm certainly not ready to replace my DVD collection, and the HD I already watch (and store on my Scientific Atlanta HD DVR), looks just fine. So even if both formats look pristine, I'm a renter rather than a buyer for this round.

6. CableCard dies out
The idea behind CableCard is a powerful one. Instead of having that ungainly HD set-top box sitting below your TV, the whole thing is shrunk to the size of a PC card that can slide right into the back of your set. Alas, the original (that is, current) version of CableCard has at least two fatal flaws: it's a one-way system, which precludes access to the video-on-demand features, beloved by consumers and cable companies alike; and it's limited to a single-tuner design, which makes it all but useless in DVRs. Both of these shortfalls were set to be corrected in the next version of CableCard. But the current rumor mill has cable companies wanting to dump CableCard altogether in favor of a downloadable software-based access system. I'm betting that industry support for CableCard continues to evaporate, with cable companies doing everything in their power to steer consumers to good old-fashion set-top boxes while they haggle over a replacement technology. Yes, the vast majority of new HDTVs we'll see this year will continue to be CableCard compatible (a.k.a. Digital Cable Ready), but entry-level models--such as Panasonic's forthcoming PX60U plasmas--will drop them in the interest of lower prices. Not that many people will care, especially the guys at Best Buy and Circuit City, who currently have to explain the concept so that they can sell overpriced single-tuner DVRs to uninformed customers. My advice: Go minimalist and buy a TV that doesn't have any sort of tuner--or a slot for it--built in. They're called HD monitors, and they're going to be very big this year.

Have any product predictions for 2006? Will TiVo get bought? What will the new Treos cost? Get your two cents in by clicking the TalkBack button now.