One of the best things about prognostication is the "I told you so" satisfaction of a successful forecast, so over the past five years, I've made sure to point out all of my dead-on predictions. This time, however, I'm admitting to an apparently incorrect hunch. I thought that Apple would forgo an iPod portable video player (PVP), but the company is reportedly working on one.

Since Apple typically doesn't make something unless it can ensure a nearly perfect user experience, I thought that introducing a PVP was the last thing Steve Jobs would do.

When Executive Editor David Carnoy and I discussed this possibility a few months ago, he thought it was likely, but I disagreed. Engineering a portable device is much more difficult for video than for audio. A movie file's resolution, frame rate, codec, dimensions, and so on complicate compatibility, and enjoying video on the go is harder. Loading a PVP requires onerous file conversion, and you have to view the content on a fairly small screen. Since Apple typically doesn't make something unless it can ensure a nearly perfect user experience, I thought that introducing a PVP was the last thing Steve Jobs would do.

Last month, the careers page of Apple's Web site advertised an opening for a video iPod developer. The listing has disappeared, but in this New York Times interview, Jobs mentions that someone in the company's labs could be working on such a device. He also talks about some of the same doubts and challenges that I'm discussing here, so for the record, my prediction might still come true.

The hardware outlook
Although many people don't even own their first MP3 player yet, PVPs are taking off among early adopters. Earlier this month at CES, Microsoft strengthened this trend by announcing a new portable operating system customized for audio and video on the go. Five devices running that OS will be released in the second half of this year, and many similar products will join them, even if Apple doesn't make an entrance. But that might not be enough to get the party started.

	The 80GB Archos AV380 is today's heaviest-hitting PVP, but its $800 price tag raises eyebrows and closes wallets.

Here's another problem with PVPs: converting CDs to MP3 files is easy, but under the Digital Millennium Copyright Act, ripping DVDs is still a felony, even if you're copying the films for personal viewing. Microsoft could probably convince the government to let us make fair use of our legally purchased movies, but that might take a while. In the meantime, consumers who want to watch their DVDs on PVPs will have to break a federal law.

Where will the legal movies come from?
Jobs is fond of saying that people listen to the tunes they love thousands of times but watch their favorite movies only six or seven times. So, even though music fans willingly pay by the song using services such as the iTunes Music Store, film buffs might more happily embrace subscription movie offers (think Netflix without the DVDs). The distinction is important to companies that want to hawk entertainment on the Internet.

Microsoft could probably convince the government to let us make fair use of our legally purchased movies, but that might take a while.

Nevertheless, most budding online movie stores are borrowing Apple's successful pay-per-download model. CinemaNow (a Microsoft partner) and Movielink (an AOL partner) are selling downloads of top-of-the-line Hollywood films for as little as 99 cents apiece, and Napster is offering the same sort of service for music videos.

If consumers warm to the idea of online video stores, PVP manufacturers will be able to surmount the compatibility obstacles. The services could preconfigure files for particular devices.

That just leaves the other problem Jobs mentions in his interview: headphones have no video equivalent. I agree with this to a certain extent, but here's a solution that could be even better than i-glasses: a digital LCD projector attachment. That would let you point your PVP at any white surface to create a movie theater. Who knows, maybe manufacturers of PVP projectors will throw in a free spray can of white paint that evaporates after two hours or so. If only something like that can make PVPs take off, mainstream users might have to wait until at least 2005 for portable video. As for those willing to try early technology, 2004 will offer plenty of PVP options--including a video iPod, assuming that Apple can somehow invent one that's as easy to use as the audio version.