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Leopard will open the Mac OS X floodgates (and embarrass Microsoft)

As many of you are aware, I think Windows Vista is a blunder. And with its annoying UAC system and horrifically slow operation, it won't take long before the majority of home users agree with me. If the recent figures showing Mac OS X is already gaining market share is any indication of the future, look for Leopard to outsell Vista by a staggering margin.

Simply put, Mac OS X Leopard is one of the most significant operating system achievements we have witnessed in years. Not only does it add functionality that Microsoft could only have dreamed of, it does so in a snappy environment that doesn't annoy you with pop-ups asking for permission or all of those security threats we have come to know (and hate) in Windows.

But my belief that Vista will soon bow to Leopard goes far beyond the operating system itself. In fact, the major reason Vista will succumb to Mac OS X has little to do with Apple, but quite a bit to do with Microsoft's current focus. Regardless of where you stand on the issue, one thing is abundantly clear: Microsoft fears Google and is doing everything it can to become the Google slayer instead of competing in its core business--software.

The company is on a slippery slope, and to be quite honest, I don't think it can get off too easily.… Read more

Microsoft forcing UK schools to pay for software they don't use

As Slashdot reports, the UK government computer agency Becta is advising UK schools not to enmesh themselves in Microsoft's School Agreement subscription pricing. Why? Because while the subscription pricing may cost less, it actually introduces other problems:

Becta...suggests [schools] use instead what is known as "perpetual licensing"....

The advantage to schools in using a subscription service such as Microsoft's is that smaller, annual payments are involved rather than a larger one-off cost.

But a spokesman for Becta said the problem was that Microsoft required schools to have licences for every PC in a school that might use its software, whether they were actually doing so or running something else.

I have an even better suggestion. Get both perpetual rights to use and modify software to fit your needs, and pay a subscription to a vendor to deliver ongoing value. It's called open source. The UK hasn't dabbled much in this newfangled thing, but it's all the rage everywhere else.… Read more

Open source to hit $22 billion by 2010. What this means for Red Hat and Novell

Saugatuck Technology has noted that at most 20% of software sold in 2010 will be open source. Proprietary software rules! Right?

It all depends on where you sit.

If you're a proprietary software vendor glutting yourself on the success of decades past, yes. By all means keep doing what you're doing. But if you're looking for rapid growth opportunities (i.e., 30 percent compound annual growth rate), open source is the way to go, to the tune of $22 billion, according to Gartner (and IDC).

Interestingly, this number jumps to $41 billion if you add in the $19 billion that enterprises will invest in internal open-source development instead of wasting it on proprietary software licenses, according to Morgan Stanley:… Read more

One helluva week for Microsoft, Leopard notwithstanding

During the Microsoft antitrust trial, one of the company's PR execs named Mark Murray would dutifully approach the press microphone on the courthouse steps in Washington, D.C., each afternoon to declare: "It was another good day for Microsoft."

That was called playing the part of loyal soldier in the face of debatable circumstances. But if Murray were called upon to sum up this week's events, I think he would describe it as a very good week for Microsoft.

And he'd be right.

In fact, it was a helluva week--one of the best the company … Read more

The Windows killer -- Google OS

PC Magazine columnist, John C. Dvorak, wrote up an interesting column earlier this week explaining exactly how Google would get into the operating system business to take on Microsoft and Apple. And while I too believe Google may make such a move, John only got us to the point of inception.

And with most of the OS focus this week being allocated to Mac OS X Leopard, I thought it would be nice to take our attention away from that for a moment, and take a look at what the hypothetical Google OS would look like after the company declares war on Microsoft.

And if you're thinking what I'm thinking, this OS would take Windows (and Mac OS X) for a ride.… Read more

The steady advance of Mac OS X

Progress is measured in steps both big and small. The smaller ones may get less attention, but they are much easier to take.

It's been a year of big steps for Apple. The company dropped the "Computer" from its name in January as a way of showing Apple was no longer just about the Mac, and the clear priority for 2007 in Cupertino was to get the iPhone out the door and selling briskly. Then, perhaps for kicks, it decided to overhaul its entire lineup of iPods.

Later today, Apple will take a smaller step, with the … Read more

Linux losing to Windows

A few years ago market share data clearly demonstrated Linux server growth outpacing Windows server growth. Today, Linux server growth has apparently slowed while Windows is picking up, according to IDC. Why? The rate of migration from Unix to Linux has slowed.

In other words, Linux may have hit the end of Unix's low-hanging fruit (which also might mean that Sun's OpenSolaris has picked up...?).

Linux growth in the U.S. x86 server market has, over the past six quarters, started to falter and reverse its positive course relative to Windows Server and the market as a whole.

The annual rate at which Linux is growing in the x86 server space has fallen from around 53 percent in 2003 (45 percent globally), when Windows Server growth was in the mid-20 percent range, to a negative 4 percent growth (less than 10 percent globally) in calendar year 2006, IDC Quarterly Server Tracker figures show.… Read more

Microsoft's quarter booms--when will open source make a dent?

Microsoft sure is taking its time dying. What with open-source cutting it off at the knees and all, I would have expected it to be packing its bags and heading home. But no, the company continues to frustrate my prophecies with great earnings. Microsoft's only weak area was online. Everything else is booming to the tune of $4.29 billion in profit.

Which begs the question: who wins in the standoff between open source and proprietary software? And when?

In the short term, the answer is clearly that open source and proprietary vendors will coexist relatively peacefully because there's still plenty of room for Oracle's consolidation play, Microsoft's ecosystem play, and IBM's...IBM play ("We're IBM, always have been, and always will be, so buy from us"). Open source has plenty of room to grow without unduly upsetting these three.

I don't think we'll have any head-on friction between these major players and open source until an open-source ecosystem player emerges.… Read more

Digging into Facebook's ad future

The fireworks have faded, the champagne has been uncorked and drunk, and now it's time to get down to business: Now that Microsoft has acquired a $240 million stake in Facebook to expand its advertising partnership, how is either company going to profit from the deal?

"That's the question that has surrounded social networks for the past few years," said Debbie Williamson, an analyst at eMarketer. "Right now, a lot of (the revenue) is from old-fashioned banner advertising that's not very targeted, it's inexpensive, and very plentiful."

The common wisdom is that … Read more