Margin Note: Time for the MacinTiVo
From Friday, May 16th
by TechTracker CEO Ralph Risch
In February I posted my iPod wish list, and in typical fashion Apple delivered none of the features I requested and still re-established the iPod as a "must-have". Changes to the device itself amounted to little more than smoothing of rough edges (and rounding of sharp corners). However, iTunes 4 and the Apple Music store have not only made the iPod more valuable, they have positioned Apple as the solution to emulate for digital music distribution. For now Mac users should be contented, and will probably wait until next year to resubmit their iPod feature requests.
Which enables us to focus on the next logical spoke of Apple's Digital Hub: television. Business 2.0 suggested recently that Apple should buy TiVo, based on the fact that both are user-focused technology companies with "boutique" products, and the challenges facing Tivo. I agree with their conclusion, but for a more fundamental reason: for most users, the TV will be the most important device connected to their Digital Hub.
Your "Digital Life" includes TV Apple's iLife apps cover 4 spokes of the Digital Hub: photos, music, video cameras, and DVDs. Apple iSync connects in cell phones and Palm OS PDAs. But nowhere does the digital hub strategy mention television, which will soon be the most common digital device in the modern household.
There are plenty of TV-connected gaming and Digital Video Recorder (DVR) consoles. There are also numerous examples of "TV-in-a-computer" solutions, most of which have failed miserably since most TV watching takes place on the sofa. Microsoft has now entered the latter category with the "My TV" component of Windows XP Media Center Edition.
What has not been done until recently is to connect the computer to the DVR device. TiVo now uses Rendezvous to source music and photos from Macs to play on your stereo or your TV. TiVo also enables remote scheduling via a web browser, recognizing that your computer is inherently a better place to research shows and schedule recording than a TV. (The next logical step is to integrate your TV schedule with your computer-based calendar.)
Computer users should also have access to video captured by the DVR. Apple has worked hard to establish the Mac as the premier video authoring device. iMovie and Final Cut users would love to repurpose TV shows (according to "fair use" laws, of course). Better yet, imagine plugging an iPod into your MacinTiVo to sync up small-screen format versions of your favorite shows to watch on the road. (So much for holding back iPod feature requests.)
Jumping in with both TiVo feet If Apple wants to enter the interactive TV market this late in the game, they need to come prepared. The TiVo brand has become the Kleenex of the DVR market, and its users rave over the technology. (FCC Chairman Michael Powell got one for Christmas, and called it "God's Machine".) TiVo is also Unix-based, so the technology teams should integrate well. More importantly, TiVo owns several key patents covering the system's operation, including one for their "multimedia time warping system."
Nonetheless, TiVo is a high risk business, and an attractive acquisition target for a company that can face those risks. TiVo's challenges include similar play-on-demand systems from cable companies like Comcast and TimeWarner. But cable-based systems are based in the cable company's servers and not in the TV console. This gives cable companies extra control (for example, to build in "non-skippable advertising"), but it also gives the users less flexibility.
TiVo's very existence is also threatened by mounting losses. Luckily, Apple is adept at cutting costs and also well-positioned to expand the TiVo audience. How many Apple customers would shell out $499 for a Macintosh-connected TV device with a lifetime subscription? Based on the success of the iPod, it is likely Apple could double TiVo's subscriber base of 625,000 in 12-18 months.
Giving the controls to the users The bigger picture here is that nobody has effectively connected a TV to the Internet, and Apple could provide a platform to do so. The opportunities for third parties (or Apple itself) are tremendous. For example, imagine using NetFlix the way you use the Apple Music Store, renting videos and downloading them to your DVR overnight for "instant" gratification, or to watch on your iPod later.
If successful, acquiring TiVo would enable Apple to position themselves as the company that finally let consumers take control of their televisions. That would be like 1984 all over again.
Disclosure: I am a shareholder of both TiVo Inc. and Apple Computer, Inc.Resources
to see how the Music Store concept works as a business model. Even
that will take some fine tuning. But Apple may be the right company to
try this because it seems they've been able to overcome some
of the content cartels paranoia about losing profits (they were never
going to make) via copying. After all they went after Replay over
commercial skipping (also known as bathroom break).
I think this is a long shot but I'm glad you made this public request. I'm
waiting to see if TiVo can survive the raging entertainment maniacs'
current assault on fair use and their own consumers.
The Idea of wanting to take TV with me on my Mac is interesting but not actually compelling. Stop asking the premier computer technology technology to answer your ill concieved desires, as profitability is more critical than addressing the day dreams of the minority geeks.
In short, Just because you can do something (like bring a TV show out with you on your mac) is not a compelling reason to do so.
You said you'd like to see further Mac/TV integration. The problem
with Apple waiting around for that integration to happen is that
most of the TV market does not care about Apple. It is surprising
that TiVo has offered the integration they have--I suspect they
discovered a high crossover in their customer base. The other
players on the TV side will not.
Profitability is Apple's most important concern today. At some point
they need to map out a growth strategy for their business. They at
least need to ensure that their market share (which is mostly
consumer at this point) does not slip because their Digital Hub
strategy is missing a key component.
Clearly Microsoft is focused on the TV as a key component of their
home strategy. I believe Apple will need to partner up or offer an
alternative.
P.S. I think it's compelling to take movies or TV shows with me
(preferably on an iPod). Either for travel or just riding the train to
work.
I also don't see much reason why Apple needs to buy a DVR company like that. That is a pretty risky market to get into. I'd rather see them maybe invest or buy into Replay and leverage their ownership to provide integrated support for the Mac. Build Rendezvous support into it for use with directly importing video into iMovie or iDVD.
I think the Music Store is a bold enough move and would rather not see them stick their neck out any farther right now. In a year, maybe.
Relay has problems, though. Their latest systems are under attack from the MPAA and the tv stations and whoever else feels like suing them. Why buy a company with that kind of baggage (also why Sonic is having trouble unloading it).
Sure its easier to get the video off of a Replay device. That's probably one reason their being sued. But if Apple owned Tivo, I don't think they'd have any trouble getting the video off the machine. Its just a matter of knowing how its stored and how to read it. And it would be far easier than what has to be done even with Replay TV. (Take the iPod, for example. The music on the iPod is not stored in any sensible way, so if you want to copy certain songs off of it onto another computer, you have to do some searching. But Apple has no problems reading it or knowing where the songs are.)
As the title says, Denon and Marantz have purchased ReplayTV already,
and so Apple or anyone else would have a hard time getting them.
I own a ReplayTV, and feel that it is better than Tivo. I know it is not
integrated with my Mac, but I can grab shows off of my Replay, and
watch them wherever i want, on my iBook. You cannot easily do that on
a Tivo. I can also store and stream video off of my Mac to my ReplayTV.
having finally broken that nasty umbilical cord of a land
phone line. I would hope that Apple could see past
buying a company like TiVo that won't give up the phone
line when all of the machines' transactions could be
made through the cable connection.
Apple would do better to make an offer for El Gato
Software's EyeTV device, which allows recording
selection through a Web browser, and places the
shows on a Mac's hard drive. Just like iTunes, Apple
could have an instant "burn" option to send the
programs to CD for viewing in a DVD player and
storage.
I was a TiVo hopeful, but I'm not going to pay $20 a
month just to have a phone line dedicated to one
machine. For $200 with no subscription fee, EyeTV is
working fine for me, and I think it would fit in better with
keeping the computer as the focus of the digital hub.
The latest version of the TiVo software, which supports broadband
connections and home networks, no longer requires a phone line.
The first words from the reply I received from TiVo's tech
support people:
"You will need a phone line to complete the Guided set
up and receive the Spring 2003 TiVo Service Update. "
Right, you need a phone line to get that update... because THAT'S
the update that makes it no longer necessary to have a phone line
anymore!! In the near future, all TiVos will start shipping with that
update already pre-installed on their hard drives, so you'll be able
to do everything through a broadband Internet connection (no
phone line at all). For more discussions, visit the TiVo Community
at <http://www.tivocommunity.com>.
Plus, you NEVER needed a DEDICATED phone line (your mentioned $20/month). TiVo shares your existing phone line well. If you don't want to string a phone wire to your TiVo, you can use one of those wireless phone solutions that are available. May are doing this.
mean,
REALLY...
the best way to burn DVDs of TV programs with my Mac. There are
a few ways to do this, but the quality is less than I want. This would
put my Mac truely in the middle of my multimedia room. Apple
wants to be the leader and this could be another break-out move.
ReplayTV, DVD studio, and you can even cut out the commercials with
Final Cut Pro.
Take a look at MacReplayTV and at this forum, your questions are
answered.
http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/forumdisplay.php?s=&forumid=27
Have fun.
I have EyeTV attached to my CableTV source and to my iBook. Using
Watson I can preprogram anything I wish to watch or record. I often
edit out the commercials, after the recording completes. Programs are
usually 42 or 43 minutes long. When ready I can burn to VCD or DVD.
This seems to me to be a stronger resource than MacinTiVo.
Gary
- by jdaly May 19, 2003 1:00 PM PDT
- I seem to recall Steve Jobs being asked about that once, and the reply
- Like this Reply to this comment
-
(16 Comments)was something to the effect of "A computer is something you go to to
turn on your mind. Television is where you go to turn off your mind."
therefore, the twain shall never meet.