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February 16, 2010 8:28 AM PST

Cell phone subscriptions to hit 5 billion globally

by Lance Whitney

On a planet with around 6.8 billion people, we're likely to see 5 billion cell phone subscriptions this year.

Reaching 4.6 billion at the end of 2009, the number of cell phone subscriptions across the globe will hit 5 billion sometime in 2010, according to the International Telecommunication Union (ITU). The explosion in cell phone use has been driven not only by developed countries, but by developing nations hungry for services like mobile banking and health care.

"Even during an economic crisis, we have seen no drop in the demand for communications services," said ITU Secretary-General Dr. Hamadoun Toure at the Mobile World Congress in Barcelona this week, "and I am confident that we will continue to see a rapid uptake in mobile cellular services in particular in 2010, with many more people using their phones to access the Internet."

Along with the surge in cell phones, demand for mobile access to the Internet has skyrocketed. The ITU expects the number of mobile broadband subscriptions to surpass 1 billion around the world this year, a leap from 600 million at the end of 2009. The organization predicts that within the next five years, more people will hop onto the Web from laptops and mobile gadgets than from desktop computers.

People in developing countries are increasingly using their cell phones for mobile banking, even those who have no bank accounts. But it's in the area of health care that cell phones have made a difference in developing regions, believes the ITU.

"Even the simplest, low-end mobile phone can do so much to improve health care in the developing world," said Toure. "Good examples include sending reminder messages to patients' phones when they have a medical appointment, or need a prenatal check-up. Or using SMS messages to deliver instructions on when and how to take complex medication such as anti-retrovirals or vaccines. It's such a simple thing to do, and yet it saves millions of dollars--and can help improve and even save the lives of millions of people."

Lance Whitney wears a few different technology hats--journalist, Web developer, and software trainer. He's a contributing editor for Microsoft TechNet Magazine and writes for other computer publications and Web sites. You can follow Lance on Twitter at @lancewhit. Lance is a member of the CNET Blog Network, and he is not an employee of CNET.
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Add a Comment (Log in or register) (18 Comments)
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by erock1974 February 16, 2010 9:50 AM PST
I find this statistic impossible to believe. This would mean that, not accounting for people with more than one cell phone, every adult person in the world between the ages of 18-65 has a cell phone. How does one reconcile that with all of the people in poor countries who are living in poverty? Actually, how does one reconcile that with what is in front of our own eyes? I don't see everyone with a cell phone, and I live in the wealthiest country on earth.
Reply to this comment 2 people like this comment
by pradhanavs February 16, 2010 10:32 AM PST
well consider this face....India has more than half billion mobile phones..that is more than 50% of population.
Russian has 207 mill phones for a population of 141.....These are not cooked up numbers....they have been cited.....

ref: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_number_of_mobile_phones_in_use
by erock1974 February 16, 2010 10:40 AM PST
pradhanavs, thanks for that info. I definitely agree that the reported statistics support the conclusions of the article. I guess I am saying that, at least in my mind, it defies common sense. There must be a flaw somewhere in the statistics. If we were talking actual phones, I would be more inclined to believe it, but they say "subscriptions."
by xcal78 February 16, 2010 10:49 AM PST
Tons of people have a 'work' and a 'personal' cell phone. I don't see any reason why you would discount people having more then 1 phone.
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by erock1974 February 16, 2010 11:19 AM PST
all right, if it makes sense to you guys, I'll buy it. It still seems incredible to me that there is a cell phone, in use, for every adult in every country on every continent in the world. xcal78, I'm not saying I don't think some people have two cell phones, I'm just saying I'm surprised there are so many people with two cell phones that it makes up for all of the people who don't have one.
by jaxstephens February 16, 2010 3:01 PM PST
I'm with eRock1974 . . . This statistic is seemingly impossible if it's counting cell phone subscriptions.

* There are only about 6 billion people alive in the world.

* Many people live in poverty and do not have a cell phone since they can't afford it.

* Many people are very young (e.g., babies) or very old and don't have a cell phone.

* Many people simply opt out of having a cell phone for personal reasons.

* While some people have a work and personal mobile phone, this is not the norm, and it would not make a huge dent in the stats. Most people only want to carry one device, so most businesses recognize this and support it to increase the usefulness of providing phones to employees (i.e., making sure it's on them at all times). At our company, almost everyone with a work phone uses it as their personal phone, too.
by samkass February 17, 2010 12:05 PM PST
At our company, work and home equipment are not allowed to mix. I have two cellphones (and two subscriptions)-- one for work and one for home, and it's not uncommon at all in my company (a very large one). My father has 3 cellphones (and subscriptions).

My understanding is that some countries we would consider poor have at least as high penetration of cell phones given the lack of any land-line infrastructure in these countries. They may not have your latest iPhone, but some of those phones we throw away are more than usable.
by cameronmoll February 17, 2010 12:26 PM PST
@ erock1974: Note that these numbers are based on "subscriptions", not individuals. Most mobile statistics are calculated this way. As an example, Italy has a subscription rate of more than 140%, or roughly 1.4 phones per eligible subscriber*. This is because some individuals carry more than one phone, usually one for work and one for personal.

And you're right, many people living in poverty do not have access to a mobile phone. But consider that 80% of the world's population lives within range of a mobile signal, and that users in the Philippines send more texts than any other country, and it's not surprising that nearly the entire planet is connected to a mobile device in one way or another.
by cameronmoll February 17, 2010 12:29 PM PST
Oops, meant to indicate what the asterisk meant in my last comment: "Eligible subscribers" are usually calculated from age 13 and older.
by weekilter February 17, 2010 4:18 PM PST
Some countries such as Israel have 140% penetration. Many people have more than one mobile account. I'm in the US and I have 3 mobile accounts. When you can have a mobile account for less than $1 per month it's not hard to see why this isn't such a far-fetched statistic.
by jlopezcnet February 16, 2010 12:34 PM PST
I was watching some 90s sitcoms and they had cell phones the size of a freaking shoe. Amazing how common these things are now days.
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by erock1974 February 16, 2010 10:12 PM PST
I'm assuming you are somewhat younger than I am. Let me tell you, those were the days. Talking on a 5-pound cell phone was sweet. I still have one, although I'm sure it wouldn't work with any of the services today. You could also use them to throw someone a beat-down.
by paramendra February 16, 2010 8:04 PM PST
One of the best stories I ever read on CNet: uplifting.
Reply to this comment
by Charles Wells--2008 February 17, 2010 2:41 PM PST
"People in developing countries are increasingly using their cell phones for mobile banking, even those who have no bank accounts."

This makes no sense. Like most of the article.
Reply to this comment
by Charles Wells--2008 February 17, 2010 2:44 PM PST
Then this bit of it-may-be-a-good-idea-but-is-ANYONE-in-a-developing-country-actually-doing-this?: "Good examples include sending reminder messages to patients' phones when they have a medical appointment, or need a prenatal check-up. Or using SMS messages to deliver instructions on when and how to take complex medication such as anti-retrovirals or vaccines. It's such a simple thing to do, and yet it saves millions of dollars--and can help improve and even save the lives of millions of people."

When was the last time your doctor sent you a text to say "Hey, it's time to take your meds..."
by weekilter February 17, 2010 4:14 PM PST
4.12 billion of that total are GSM/W-CDMA/HSPA subscribers.
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by jake14961987 March 10, 2010 5:34 PM PST
The cell phones improve the communication among the people. For the people of developing countries, the mobiles stand for more effecient life.http://www.sourcinggate.com/mobile-phone-c-4.html
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by Queen0521 July 23, 2010 8:44 AM PDT
I think the stats are considering that they are family who has subscriptions for all their members and even in poor nations you can see a lot of people with that kind of device in their hands.
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