Drop, charge, and lose the cordsA group of CEOs on Monday came out favor of a regional roll-out of electric vehicles in up to eight cities to demonstrate the viability of the technology and incubate the fledgling industry.
The Electricifcation Coalition held a press conference in Washington, D.C. and released an Electrification Roadmap, which prescribes the business and policy steps required to ramp up electric vehicle adoption.
There are 13 members of the coalition, including the CEOs of Nissan Motor, FedEx, Pacific Gas & Electric, and battery maker A123 Systems. The coalition was spun out of Securing America's Future Energy, a lobbying group focused on reducing U.S. imports of oil.
The Electrification Coalition argues that light-duty electric vehicles are the only technology that can cut oil imports and reduce carbon emissions in the near term. Its report (click for link) focuses on what's required to make electric cars available at large scale.
"I think we have the conditions for the mass market. But it's going to take more time," said Carlos Ghosn, the president and CEO of Nissan. "The investments to be made are huge. To make 50,000 batteries is a $250 million investment."
Of all the major automakers, Nissan is the most bullish on electrification. It is releasing an all-electric family sedan called the Leaf in the U.S. and Japan next year. It projects that 10 percent of new cars sales in 2020 will be electric, which is higher than most analysts' projections.
The shift presents challenges to auto makers that are unsure of consumer acceptance. Utilities and municipalities need to prepare in order to make these vehicles more consumer-friendly but they, too, are unsure what the volume of sales will be.
To take some uncertainly out of the picture, the Electrification Coalition advocates a "foothold strategy." Six to eight cities would create a number of incentives for electric vehicles, such as preferential parking and public charging stations. They would apply for government incentives and then test out the system to help bring electric cars to "critical mass," explained David Crane, the president and CEO of power generator NRG Energy.
In the first phase, the plan calls for getting 50,000 to 100,000 light-duty plug-in vehicles on the road per year in certain areas starting next year and then expand to 25 cities. Its report sets a target of having 25 percent of new vehicle sales be plug-ins by 2020, which is 5 million vehicles. A jump to 90 percent of new vehicle sales being plug-ins by 2030 would represent roughly 17 million units, according to data from consulting company PRTM.
For consumers, batteries should be owned and financed separately from the car itself, Crane said. Because batteries are an expensive component that makes it more expensive than a comparably-sized gasoline car, auto makers, including Nissan, are looking at ways to keep monthly car payments roughly the same by leasing batteries.
Governments around the world have established financial incentives for electric vehicles because it improves national security and addresses environmental problems, Nissan's Ghosn said. He noted that France, the U.S., and Japan each have established a tax credit of about $7,500 to consumers who buy an electric car.
In addition to federal tax credits, the coalition endorses incentives for municipalities dedicated to bringing in electric vehicles. Also required is technology to allow consumers to charge at off-peak times.
Speakers at the coalition launch also underscored the economic reasons for which governments are pushing electrification. Reducing oil imports would mean that billions of dollars of U.S. wealth would stop being exported, said Crane.
Government programs to drive investing in electric vehicle manufacturing also help the U.S. auto industry adapt to emerging technologies.
"We can do this. This is something we have the ingenuity for--we have enough innovation. What we need to do is capture that and use that to our advantage to build factories," said David Vieau, the CEO of A123 Systems.
Click for larger image.
(Credit: Electrification Coalition)
Fisker's first car, the Karma, is set to be released next year. Its Delaware plant is set to make its next luxury car, which will also be a plug-in hybrid.
(Credit: Fisker Automotive)Upstart carmaker Fisker Automotive on Tuesday said it will purchase a plant in Wilmington, Del., to make a plug-in hybrid sedan.
The facility, which used to be a General Motors factory, will begin manufacturing a plug-in hybrid in late 2012, which the company expects will cost almost $40,000 after federal tax credits. U.S. Vice President Joe Biden and Delaware Gov. Jack Markell are scheduled to speak at an announcement ceremony on Tuesday morning.
Production of Fisker's "family-oriented" car, called Project Nina, will result in 2,000 factory jobs. The company anticipates making 75,000 to 100,000 cars per year by 2014. "Wilmington is perfect for high-quality, low-volume production," CEO Henrik Fisker said in a statement.
The Wilmington assembly plant, closed in July this year, produced a handful of relatively low-volume cars from GM's shed brands, including the Pontiac Solstice and Saturn Sky.
Fisker's first car, called the Karma, is a high-end luxury car priced at about $88,000. The Karma, which is will be manufactured in Europe, will be available in the middle of next year.
Fisker Automotive received $528.7 million from a Department of Energy loan in September, which will fund the purchase of the factory from GM. The company expects to buy the plant for $18 million and spend another $175 million to retool the factory over the next three years.
The technology used by Fisker, called an extended-range electric vehicle or series hybrid, is similar to that used by General Motors' Chevy Volt. The Karma will go 50 miles on batteries, and then a gasoline engine will run a generator for longer rides, for a total range 300 miles.
DETROIT--For plug-in electric cars, it's no longer a question of if. It's a question of when and how.
After many years of buildup, plug-in vehicles aimed at mainstream buyers are set to come to the market starting next year. But even with the momentum around plug-ins, many questions remain unanswered over how this technology transition will impact the ailing auto industry and how the cars will received by consumers.
"You have the feeling that we're at the beginning of something that could be very special," said David Cole, the chairman of the Center for Automotive Research, which is funded by government and corporate sources, during the opening of the Business of Plugging In conference here on Tuesday. "There are a great many uncertainties, but we have to recognize that the key invention is here with the lithium ion battery."
The sold-out conference, which attracted about 600 people, represented the varied groups needed to deliver these vehicles: automakers and supply chain suppliers, electricity utilities, policy makers, tech entrepreneurs, and investors.
Regardless of the initial volumes of electric-vehicle sales, the stakes in this shift are high. Electric vehicles promise to reduce pollution from transportation, decrease oil imports, and provide economic opportunity for a broad number of businesses.
Compared to biofuels or hydrogen fuel cell technologies, the large automakers and several start-ups have coalesced around electrification, to a greater extent. But there still remains the question of how much money consumers are willing to pay and how easily they can adjust strong habits.
"We've placed big bets in this area...(but) the question is: will consumers want these vehicles?" Bill Ford, the chairman of Ford Motor, said during a Wednesday talk. "The short answer is, it depends on how many trade-offs they need to make...and I think customers aren't prepared to make many trade-offs at all."
Hybrid premium
Plug-in cars come in various forms, but the larger battery means a higher purchase price than today's hybrids or equivalent gasoline models. If consumers are going to accept that up-front cost, automakers need to convince them that owning an electric car is cheaper in the long run. One idea that automakers are seriously considering is leasing batteries, which could make the monthly payments for a new electric car comparable to a gasoline version.
The actual prices for many cars aren't yet known, since companies have not yet decided. Nissan's all-electric Leaf sedan, set for its U.S. debut next month and availability next year, is said to be in the $25,000 to $30,000 range. Industry executives estimate that the electric Chevy Volt, due late next year, will be in the $40,000 range.
Fueling up an electric car is less expensive than running the equivalent gasoline-only vehicle, and auto industry executives say the maintenance is simpler on electric drives (no more oil changes, for example). Jonathan Lauckner, General Motors' vice president of global program management, on Tuesday said the cost per mile of the Volt could be a sixth of a gasoline car's, offering as much as $1,500 a year in savings. Those savings get better, if gas prices go up and if drivers can charge up more than once a day.
And consumers want this information. Surveys show that consumers are drawn to plug-ins for environmental reasons, but fuel savings are actually more important, according to a survey of U.S. drivers done by Ernst & Young. Safety, of course, is another high priority.
"We've always had a disconnect between the purchase price and the usage cost, where consumers way undervalue the usage costs, which will continue to be a problem here," Richard Curtain, of the Institute of Social Research at the University of Michigan, said during a panel on Wednesday. "If it got to less than a $5,000 premium, that would allay many of the concerns of the consumer."
Industry executives say volume production, a goal of the Department of Energy's $2.4 billion grant program launched in August, will help bring down costs in the coming years, much the way hybrid components fell in price. But that up-front premium is tough to totally erase, given that electrification is competing with a deeply entrenched technology: the internal combustion engine.
Battery improvements will help the cost picture as well. Many companies are working on batteries--a new generation of lithium ion batteries and other chemistries--that can pack more energy. More "energy-dense" batteries means that drivers will get a longer driving range from a battery of a given size. Ultracapacitors, another storage method, have also been proposed as way to work with batteries in vehicles.
Technology horse race
The different routes automakers are taking to electrification affects costs. General Motors' Chevy Volt has generated plenty of buzz, but company executives say its design will make at least the first generation of the car pricey. GM hopes to wring thousands of dollars from the Volt power train, notably the battery and power electronics in the second generation of the car.
Fisker Automotive, a start-up that received a $528 million loan from the Department of Energy, is using a similar power train for its planned Karma and Nina high-end luxury cars. Called an extended-range electric vehicle or a series hybrid, these cars will run on battery charge only in the beginning--40 miles in the case of the Volt--and then use an internal combustion engine to operate a generator for the electric motor on longer trips.
A handful of automakers--Ford, Nissan, Think, and Coda Automotive among them--are making all-electric vehicles, also called battery-electric vehicles. Because of the limited range of about 80 miles to 100 miles, these cars are being sold as second cars in the United States or Europe or for city driving.
By contrast, Toyota, which has already sold millions of Priuses, believes that the way to sell large volumes of plug-in cars is to build on the existing hybrid technology, where batteries and the gasoline engine both propel the car.
"We think that blended (mode) is going to be the only way to reach the cost parity that the consumer is going to want," said Justin Ward, the advanced power train program manager at the Toyota Technical Center. "There (are) a lot of high-end cars, but how high do you go before it becomes unattainable for the general consumer?"
Infrastructure
Electric and hybrid cars aren't going to take over the market any time soon, because of cost and because they face competition from more efficient gasoline engines and diesels. Market researcher IHS Global Insight projects that pure-electric and range-extended electric vehicles will account for just more than 1 percent of the total market by 2014, with hybrids and plug-in hybrids being nearly 21 percent.
But even though plug-ins of various types will be a niche in the early years, utilities need to start preparing now. On a local level, utility executives are concerned that just a few plug-in cars, which can pull as much juice as a whole house when charging, will strain local power grids. That's particularly true, if consumers install faster 220-volt charging ports, which will cut charge time to about two or three hours, from six or eight.
The way to avoid stressing the grid is to charge cars at off-peak times, utility executives say. Pacific Gas & Electric, considered one of the most aggressive utilities in embracing new technologies, plans to offer customers a 220-volt charger that has a timer so consumers can take advantage of lower rates at off-peak times. Using a smart-grid technology, a car charger could pick its charge time and rate by communicating through a smart meter.
But what if someone can't charge at home? Like others, utility industry group the Edison Electric Institute advocates new building codes demanding that all new buildings are wired so that charging stations can be added in places such as underground parking garages in apartment buildings or retail areas, according to Anthony Earley, the chairman of the institute and CEO of utility DTE Energy.
A few charging stations will go a long way, according to people who spoke at the conference. "We act like this is a chicken-and-an-egg problem, but it's really not," said Mark Duvall, the director of electric transportation at the Electric Power Research Institute. "They are not enabling technologies, in my opinion, but they can help."
If plug-in electric vehicles are wildly popular with consumers and fleet owners, the industry will then face the challenge of having sufficient capital to scale up. During a discussion on battery technologies, academics said that even now, there isn't a sufficient workforce to do the engineering required for electric vehicles, with the most glaring hole in materials science.
Although higher manufacturing should significantly cut battery prices, there were regular questions about the supply of lithium at the conference. Overall, auto and battery company executives said lithium supply is not a pressing concern. Lithium could be extracted from different sources and can be recycled, said Yet Ming Chiang, the chief scientist of battery upstart A123 Systems and professor of ceramics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
The U.S. auto industry has an opportunity to be reinvigorated with electric auto technologies, as its seeks to transition from the "rust belt to the green belt," Michigan Gov. Jennifer Granholm said Wednesday. China, meanwhile, is investing heavily in electric transportation, which national leaders see as a way to "leapfrog" to the latest technologies, said Yibing Wu, the managing director of Legend Holding, the company that makes Lenovo laptops and is moving into clean energy.
On an environmental level, plug-in hybrid cars have 30 percent lower carbon emissions, even if a car is fueled by coal-fired power plants, Earley said. That's particularly important on a global level, since hundreds of millions of cars are expected to be sold in the coming years in developing countries, said Ann Marie Sastry, a University of Michigan professor and a co-founder of a Khosla Ventures-backed battery company Sakti3.
"The small car is absolutely going to be essential for electrification and to all of us because it doesn't matter where the carbon comes from--whether we generate it or it comes from the emerging economies," Sastry said. "It's imperative (that) the United States play a role in this technology development because of our own interest in climate change."
(Credit:
Suzuki)
Suzuki is an automaker that we don't hear too much from in the U.S. However, when we do hear from it--such as with the two SX4s we've tested--we generally like what it has to say. So when we got word that a plug-in hybrid version of one of the smallest Suzukis, the Swift, would be on display at the 2009 Tokyo Motor Show, our interest was piqued.
The Suzuki Swift plug-in hybrid can be classified as a series gas-electric hybrid or an extended-range electric vehicle, depending on who you ask. The front wheels are turned by a 54 kW (72.4 horsepower) electric motor, which gets its supply of electrons from an array of lithium ion batteries. The battery pack is mounted in the center tunnel with rather novel window cut into the center console, displaying one of the cells.
The Swift PHEV's center tunnel mounted battery, visible through a cutout.
(Credit: Suzuki)
Like any good concept, the Swift PHEV has cool looking seats made of odd materials.
(Credit: Suzuki)When the batteries run low, a small 600cc gasoline generator kicks in (a la Chevy Volt) to power the electric motor and keep the batteries topped off.
Range and fuel economy data has not yet been supplied, but stay tuned to our continuing coverage of the 2009 Tokyo Motor Show for more details as they emerge.
Nice try Audi, but I'm more of a Nikola Tesla kinda guy.
(Credit: Antuan Goodwin/CNET)We see our fair share of odd promotional materials in this line of work, but every now and then we get something that's just plain clever.
The package contained a kite branded with the new Audi logo, the ElectricityUntamed.com URL, and a date "9.15.09," which is the opening day of the 2009 Frankfurt auto show. Attached to the kite, Ben Franklin style, was a small metal key-shaped USB drive (a LaCie Iamakey, for all of our techies). The drive contained a few of the videos that we've already seen on Audi's microsite, as well as the following diatribe:
Ben Franklin refused to take lightning at face value.
So, on that fateful stormy day in June of 1752, armed with his now-famous kite and key experiment, he set out to prove that electricity was a force in nature.
He was correct, to say the least.
Electricity is the mother of all natural forces. It can split a tree, ignite a forest fire, overpower a bespectacled 46-year old future Founding Father.
It is both feared and revered.
But it got dumbed down. Underutilized. Wussified. Relegated to toasters and toothbrushes. It helps run glorified golf carts with license plates.
Mr. Franklin would be so disappointed. It's time to let electricity run wild. Free. Completely untamed.
ElectricityUntamed.com
Umm, OK? Of course, behind all of the ranting about the raw power of electricity and a sad Ben Franklin, it's fairly obvious that Audi is developing an electric sports car. Whether that car proves to be the electric R8 or something smaller and more Tesla Roadster-like remains to be seen.
Stay tuned to our continuing coverage of the 2009 Frankfurt auto show for more details and photos as they emerge.
(Credit:
Mercedes-Benz)
Okay, so after a pair of supercar reveals on yesterday, let's take a step in a different direction and focus on something more environmentally friendly.
Hot on the heels of the S 400 Hybrid's European launch, Mercedes-Benz is set to trot our its new Vision S 500 Plug-in Hybrid at the 2009 Frankfurt auto show. (Wait, isn't BMW's new hybrid concept also called "Vision?" Oooh, scandalous!)
The Vision S 500's engine room is predictably similar to that of the S 400. Both vehicles use the same direct injected V-6 gasoline engine, both vehicles feature a electric ring motor sandwiched between the gasoline engine and the 7G-Tronic seven-speed automatic transmission. However, there are a few crucial differences.
Firstly, the S 500's 44 kW/60 horsepower electric motor is about three times more powerful than the S 400's 15 kW/20 horsepower unit. Additionally, the S 500's larger 10 kWh lithium ion battery pack is housed over the rear axle, instead of in the engine compartment.
A more robust electrical component allows the Vision S to go up to 18 miles on EV power.
(Credit: Mercedes-Benz)Finally, the Vision S 500 Plug-in Hybrid is, as the name implies, a plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV), with its own onboard charger. Mercedes-Benz claims that a rapid charge cycle takes less than an hour with a 20 kW source. Recharging a completely discharged battery to full with a conventional household socket takes about 4.5 hours. Not too bad, we think.
Fully juiced, the Vision S can drive for up to 18 miles on silent electric power before the gasoline engine has to intervene. Mercedes is claiming a certified consumption of 73.5 US mpg (on the New European Driving Cycle), which pretty much blows the S 400 hybrid's 29 mpg out of the water.
(Credit:
Fisker Automotive)
Here we go again. Automaker Fisker throws its hat into the claimed mpg battleground with its announcement of the official fuel economy and emissions ratings for its Karma plug-in hybrid electric vehicle.
According to Fisker, the Karma will have an economy rating of 3.5L/100km (which works out to 67.2 mpg) and emit just 83g CO2/km, according to Society of Automotive Engineers estimates. Wait, does that mean that the Karma--a sports car that outputs 403 horsepower and hits 62 mph in an estimated six-seconds--may be more fuel efficient than the 2010 Prius.
According to Fisker:
"Fueling the Karma could cost just 0.02 euro/km ($0.03/mile), consuming as little as 21 kilowatt hours per 100km in its electric-only Stealth mode, according to SAE methodology. However, a real-world annual average would be closer to 0.05 euro/km ($0.07/mile) based on a mix of Stealth and Sport (gasoline) mode use. Actual economy and emission results will vary depending on individual driving habits and usage requirements."
The key here lies in that last sentence about "individual driving habits." With 400-plus ponies on tap, how many drivers will be able to resist laying into the pedal on the right to get anywhere close to the claimed 67.2 mpg?
The Karma will be present at the Frankfurt auto show next week, as part of its German market debut.
As America continues to face roller coaster prices at the gas pumps and a constant reliance on foreign oil, will that pave the road for hybrid electric cars? It could, if a new survey is accurate.
Around 48 percent of American consumers asked said they would be extremely or very interested in buying a plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV), according to a new Pike Research survey.
(Credit:
Pike Research)
PHEVs promise better fuel mileage, lower carbon emissions, and less oil dependence than cars that use gasoline exclusively.
These hybrids can typically reach a distance of around 40 miles on a single charge. But that fits well within the needs of many drivers. Around 82 percent of those questioned in the "Electric Vehicle Consumer Survey" drive 40 miles or less per day, and on average travel only around 27 miles daily.
Citing the benefits of electric hybrids, 85 percent of consumers said greater fuel efficiency would be important when picking their next car. Pike estimates that the cost of electricity to charge hybrids would equal around 75 cents per gallon of gas.
Around 65 percent of respondents said they'd be willing to pay a premium price for a hybrid, on average close to 12 percent over the cost of a standard gas-powered car.
The survey found that 79 percent would buy a fast-charging electrical outlet for their homes. But many also expressed the need for charging stations at work and at public places.
Younger people and those with higher levels of education did express a somewhat greater desire for hybrids than did other groups. But overall, interest didn't differ much among age, gender, income, or education, leading Pike to believe the vehicles should appeal to the mass market.
Among those not interested in plug-in hybrids, 45 percent said they'd want to wait until the technology is more proven, while 33 percent said 40 miles on a single charge would not meet their needs.
(Credit:
Peak Research)
Following their market introduction next year, more than 600,000 PHEVs will be sold in the U.S. by 2015, forecasts Pike. A number of auto companies will soon debut hybrids that can drive a certain distance using only battery power, then switch to gas when the battery is drained.
The research firm gathered its findings from a Web-based survey of 1,041 U.S. consumers during the second quarter of 2009.
Other surveys have uncovered similar results. Last year, a JD Power survey found high consumer interest in hybrids, even with their premium price tags.
CNET News' Martin LaMonica takes a test drive in a plug-in hybrid SUV being developed by GM at GM's Milford Proving Ground in Milford, Michigan.
How does the Leaf get huge miles per gallon without actually using gallons?
(Credit: Nissan)
OK, these ridiculous mpg claims are starting to get out of hand. Earlier this week, General Motors announced an estimated 230 mpg for the upcoming Volt extended-range EV--a claim that was later undermined by the EPA. No doubt attempting to steal a bit of GM's thunder, Nissan claimed (via Twitter) that its upcoming Leaf EV could do better:
"Nissan Leaf = 367 mpg, no tailpipe, and no gas required. Oh yeah, and it'll be affordable too!"
At first, we thought this was an odd claim to make, seeing that the Leaf is fully electric and (as stated in the same tweet) doesn't actually use gasoline or diesel fuel. Nissan, followed up later with another tweet stating that they were using a DOE formula to estimate the 367 mpg equivalency for the electric LEAF, but doesn't that just confuse prospective customers further with obtuse conversions?
What do you think, wise and noble reader? In a world where vehicles run on gasoline, diesel, hydrogen, ethanol, alcohol, natural gas, and electricity (to name a few), is it time for a new efficiency metric or should we stick with old faithful (if not sometimes inapplicable) miles per gallon?
